Soybean volatility stopped its slide today with old crop up 1-2% and November up 1% at 40%. With the July/Nov spread trading as high as 194 today and up 60 cents in a week, one would think vol would be catching a bid somewhere here.
Energies had another truly impressive day today with July RBOB trading as much as 5 cents higher at one point today. As I've mentioned in the past, volatility has not followed price to higher levels through this upward price move but that appears to be changing. In the past five or so sessions, nearby vol has been bid up two to three percent and options one year out are one to two points higher. Its still early but as futures prices rise to levels where technical profit taking becomes probable, this uptick in vol may foretell a change in direction. My bet would be something short term with the major trend (up) remaining intact.
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